The Problem

During the last century, the industrialized nations changed from a primarily rural, agricultural society into a primarily urban, industrialized society. Then, starting with the advent of computers and robots in the latter part of the century, the middle-class jobs associated with producing and distributing the goods along with the associated office-based services needed by this industrial society started to disappear. Computers and robots began to replace these jobs (automation). Furthermore, even within professions that are expected to be resistant to automation (such as architecture), the salary separation between the higher echelons of the profession and the lower ones is becoming larger because the repetitive work normally done in the lower echelons is being taken over by computers and robots. As time goes on, it is becoming obvious that almost all ordinary work can be done by computers and robots except tasking, designing, managing and repairing these computers and robots and healing and educating humans. Note that this trend is occurring worldwide. It is just delayed in the developing nations until they reach the stage of industrialization. In addition, the population is still increasing, so jobs must be found for each new expanding graduating class that enters the work force. This deficit in jobs leaves a major problem for mankind. What will men and women do to earn the food, goods and services they require to live a good life? A new industry and life style is required that fills this need, especially to fill the lost jobs for middle-class people. In a related paper (Ap1.31 NEW JOBS FOR THE COMING GENERATION) an industry that harvests energy on the ocean for sale on land was described that makes four hundred million ocean-based jobs available for the coming generation to fill this need. The people who live on the sea are called the Aquaters and the vessels they live on are called SEMAN. Some people will not be willing to go to sea to get a job, however. Also, four hundred million jobs are not expected to be enough for mankind’s future population. In this paper, an estimate of the number of jobs expected to be needed will be provided. Also candidates for the land-based jobs needed for those who don’t want to go to sea will be described. These estimates will be done assuming the population of earth reaches 8 billion by 2050, rises to 10 billion, and then gradually sinks to 6 to 8 billion as a final steady value. This assumption is often used in population estimates. Finally, an escape path for excess population over and above what can be provided for by these new industries will be described.

The Evidence

The earth’s population is still increasing. In past times, new population would be expected to create new jobs in proportion, and thus solve the jobs problem. Now, however, production of new food, goods and services for the new population can be obtained without increasing the workers in each field by using computers and robots. This conclusion is justified by extrapolating the trends shown from prior census information adjusted for new trends in automation and the limits of automation (See AP1.33 THE LIMITS OF AUTOMATION). The following table can illustrate this trend.

Table 1. Breakdown of the working population by the industry worked in.

Industry (note, data obtained from the US census information posted on the Internet)	% Of working population in 2010 (note, working population in US is 133 million)	% Of working population expected in 2050 (note, working population in US is estimated to be 152 million)
Agriculture, forestry, fishing, hunting and mining	1.7	1.2
Construction	7.7	4.0
Manufacturing	11.9	8.0
Wholesale trade	3.6	1.2
Retail trade	11.6	4.0
Transportation, warehousing, utilities	5.0	4.0
Information	2.5	4.0
Financial, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing	7.3	7.3
Professional, science, management, administration and waste mgt. systems	9.9	16.4
Educational services, health care and social services	20.3	10.0
Arts, food services, entertainment, recreation and accommodations	8.4	12
Public administration and other services	9.6	9.6
Armed forces	0.5	0.5

Table 2. Breakdown of workers that move to non-working categories.

Those who are self employed or live on their investments	NA	12.8
Unemployed, disabled and welfare	NA	5

The trends for each of these industries up to 2050 can be summarized as follows.

Agriculture, forestry, fishing, hunting and mining. In the past, this was the dominant industry by far. Then, starting in the mid nineteenth century, the farms, boats and mines became larger and more automated and so the number of people involved was reduced to the present small number. In the future, new harvesting techniques and robots are expected to eliminate the harvesting jobs etc. and reduce this percent by 1/3 down toward planners, managers and maintenance as shown. Some of the workers associated with the Aquater Alliance and SEMAN use will show up in this category.
Construction. In the past, this industry also had a much larger share of the job market, but power tools and pre-fabricated sections reduced this share to the present number. In the future, new tools, techniques and robots are expected to reduce this percent by half toward designers, managers and maintenance as shown. Some of the workers associated with the Aquater Alliance and SEMAN use will show up in this category.
Manufacturing. This industry reached its peak employment in the early part of the twentieth century. Then the assembly line and robots reduced its share to the current value. In the future, more use of robots is expected to reduce this percent by 1/3 toward designers, managers and maintenance as shown. Especially interesting is the new computer controlled Three-D printer manufacturing currently coming on line. This technique is expected to displace many existing manufacturing operations. A few of the land-based workers associated with the Aquater Alliance and SEMAN manufacture will show up in this category.
Wholesale and retail trade. These industries gradually increased their share of employment until the latter part of the twentieth century, and then, with the advent of large retailers and the Internet, it is expected to reduce its share by two-thirds as shown. Some of the land-based workers associated with the Aquater Alliance and SEMAN use will show up in this category
Transport, warehousing and utilities. This industry is more resistant to automation, with the exception of warehousing, so it is expected to reduce its share by only 1/5 as shown. Some of the land-based workers associated with the Aquater Alliance and SEMAN use will show up in this category
Information. This industry is expected to increase in importance, and so require a larger share of the work force as shown.
Finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing. This industry requires a certain amount of personal contact, so it’s share of the workforce is expected to remain roughly constant.
Professional, science, management, administration and waste management systems. This industry is expected to increase its share of the work force dramatically as shown, because of an increased need for these skills in a computerized and robotized society. Some of the land-based workers associated with the Aquater Alliance and the SEMAN use are expected to show up in this category.
Educational services, health care and social services. This industry is expected to increase its share of the work force for a short time, and then eventually lose its share by half as more efficient means of accomplishing these goals become available. This is especially true of health care and social services, where anti viral medicines, gene repair and brain repair techniques that are just coming on line are expected to eventually have a dramatic impact on the cost of and need for health care and social services. A reduction of this share of the work force by half is expected to result. Some of the land-based workers associated with the Aquater Alliance and SEMAN use will show up in this category.
Arts, entertainment, recreation, accommodations and food services. With increasing leisure available in the future, this industry’s share of the work force is expected to increase by 1/3 as shown.
Public administration and other services. These industries are expected to maintain their share roughly constant.
Armed forces. This catagory is also expected to maintain its share of the work force roughly constant.

There are two other occupations that are important.

People who are self employed and live on their investments. This occupation is expected to increase its share as more people use investments and the way they live to become independent of the work-a-day world. All of the sea-based workers and part of the land based workers associated with the Aquater Alliance and SEMAN use will show up in this category. Accomplishing this goal is one of the primary purposes of this paper and this Aquater development program.
People, who are unemployed, disabled or are on welfare. The acceptable percentage of unemployed in an industrialized nation is roughly 3%. The acceptable percentage of those disabled or on welfare is roughly 2%. For the US, this 5 % works out to be is 4,6 million people. World wide (assuming the world economy becomes similar to the US), this percentage works out to be 123 million people. The unemployed category is expected to increase until we figure out a way to move them into the professional, science, management, self employed, etc. category or make them independent. One of the primary goals of this paper and the Aquater development program is to accomplish this move. Eventually, this category will reach an irreducible minimum and support of them will have to be tolerated as civilization’s overhead.

It should be noted that for the purposes of this paper and AP3.1 NEW JOBS FOR THE COMING GENERATION, the sea jobs connected with the Aquater Alliance and SEMAN use are counted in Table 2. The land jobs connected with the Aquater Alliance and land service for the SEMAN are counted in Table 1. The population of the US has been estimated to reach 343 million by 2050 and of the world to reach 8 billion by 2050. After 2050, the world population is estimated to increase to 10 billion, and then reduce to 8 billion or a bit less by 2100, and remain roughly constant. Some estimates call for a slightly increasing population after 2100. These numbers are only estimates, and are controversial, but they are not silly, and so can serve as a baseline for our purposes.

Is Action Required?

It is clear that middle class jobs are disappearing and population is increasing (see The Evidence). The need for new jobs is clear. There is not a nation on earth that does not recognize the need for new middle class jobs. They are needed now.

The Requirements

The requirements for these new middle class jobs are also clear.

They must come from a new industry. The old industries are reducing jobs.
They must be available in communities that weigh lightly on the land-i.e. They must not require energy, fresh water, food, sewage disposal or desirable land from the host nation (see AP1.5 DIMINISHING WATER AND FOOD SUPPLIES).
They must be green-i.e. They must not stress the environment (see AP1.1 AIR POLLUTION AND CLIMATE CHANGE), and they must use renewable materials.
They must weigh lightly on society-i.e. They must provide their own retirement funds and infrastructure development (see AP1.4 THE GRADUAL USING UP OF OUR RETIREMENT FUNDS).
Some must be land-based for those who don’t want to live on the sea. New sea-based jobs are expected to be available through the Aquater Alliance (see AP1.31 NEW JOBS FOR THE COMING GENERATION).
The construction methods and materials must be simple to use so ordinary workers with ordinary skills can get jobs.
The number of jobs should be open ended i.e. the requirement should be elastic enough to accommodate all new workers if possible.

Now let us see what options are available.

Potential Solutions

The new sea-based jobs of the Aquaters operating SEMAN will automatically generate new land-based jobs. Consider the following tasks that must be done.

The products of the SEMAN (fertilizer concentrate, synthetic oil, etc.) need to be trans-shipped to land transport for sale, so new SEMAN friendly ports will be needed. The most likely configuration is to have a SEMAN port to receive SEMAN products next to a container ship port to ship them out.
The raw materials received in the ports from SEMAN need to be processed into final products such as fertilizer pellets and fuel oil and lubricants, etc.
New SEMAN need to be constructed for sale and shipment to Aquater pods, and old SEMAN need to be repaired.
New candidates to own and operate SEMAN must be trained.
These land-based workers must be housed, fed and entertained, which also generates jobs.

In order to satisfy the above-mentioned requirements, the operations and facilities that do these tasks will have the following characteristics.

The facilities will be sited near the ocean, but they can be placed in otherwise undesirable land areas, since they will be independent of the land surrounding them. They will be small and scattered around the edge of the ocean (a few in each nation of the world) and on the ocean, to supply easy access to SEMAN pods.
The facilities will have processing equipment to process raw materials from SEMAN into final products.
The facilities will have construction equipment to construct and repair SEMAN.
The construction materials and techniques used will be simple and buildable to ensure that most workers can join the work force.
The operations will have schools to train new Aquaters in SEMAN operation.
The facilities will have some energy generating equipment to supply their own needs from wind, waves and sun, but it is not expected that they can supply all their own needs, since sighting will not be optimized for energy production. The remainder of their energy needs can be purchased from SEMAN.
The facilities will have equipment to obtain fresh water from seawater and grow enough food to accommodate the workers using the same hydroponics techniques used by the SEMAN.
The facilities will be made primarily from wood, fiberglass and epoxy, all of which are either renewable (wood and epoxy) or immensely common (sand)
The facilities will be able to convert their own sewage into safe fertilizer.
Each site will have a medical facility for the simple illnesses of its workers. Major medical procedures will be left to hospitals in the nation on which it is sited.
The operations will have their own retirement funds, but these funds can arrange a retirement program with the Aquater Alliance rather than with Social Security,

It will be seen that these land jobs satisfy all the requirements specified except open-ended ness. For this feature, the following capability must be added.

In AP3.1 THE FINAL SOLUTION TO MAN’S POPULATION PROBLEM, a cheap method of boosting living pods into earth orbit is described. It is connected with Aquater pods. These land facilities will then supply the training, equipment and people necessary to populate orbital communities.

In the US, the number of sea-based jobs required that may be filled by the Aquater Alliance and its SEMAN is estimated to reach 19.5 million by 2050. The number of land-based jobs required that may be filled by the Aquater Alliance in serving the SEMAN is estimated to reach 7.6 million by 2050. Assuming that the structure of most of the economies of the other nations of the world will become similar to the US by 2050, and that the population of the world will reach 8 billion by 2050, the number of sea-based jobs required that may be filled by the Aquater Alliance and its SEMAN is estimated to reach 520 million by 2050. With the same assumption for the world economy, the number of land-based jobs required that may be filled by the Aquater Alliance in serving the SEMAN is estimated to reach 203 million by 2050. These estimates would also be valid for a final world population of 8 billion. If the final, stable world population turns out to be 6 billion instead of 8 billion, the number of sea-based jobs required would be 390 million, and the number of land-based jobs required would be 152 million. It has been estimated (see AP1.2 ENERGY SCARCITY AND NEW OPTIONS) that the oceans of the world can carry 200 million SEMAN or 400 million workers (two workers are needed for each SEMAN for safe operation) in areas with winds high enough (>15 KN) for profitability. It has been estimated that the ratio of land to sea Aquater workers is 0.38. Thus 150 million workers are needed on land to serve 400 million workers on the sea. Thus, considering the uncertainties in the estimates, the number of jobs required worldwide by 2050 appears to be larger than the number of Aquater jobs available for a world population of 8 billion and roughly equivalent for a world population of 6 billion. Note that these Aquater jobs cannot be easily automated or scaled out of existence. Four hundred million sea jobs are required because the energy produced per SEMAN is small, and the energy required is large. One hundred and fifty million land jobs are required because the land facilities that serve the SEMAN must be sprinkled all around the edge of and on the ocean to ensure convenient access for the SEMAN

So a complete solution to the problem of long-term future work may exist if the final population falls to 6 billion. If the population rises to reach 10 billion and then falls to 8 billion, we will probably have a major work problem. This is not the only potential solution to these problems, however. Others are working on different solutions (see AP1.31 NEW JOBS FOR THE COMING GENERATION). Some of these options may work out. It does seem prudent, however, to include an option to immigrate into orbit around earth, as explained in AP3.1 THE FINAL SOLUTION TO MAN’S POPULATION PROBLEM. This pair of options, then, becomes a complete and well-rounded solution, and tells us we don’t need to worry about the future if we continue to work on the developments necessary to make these options real. Without these two options, the problem of a need for jobs appears formidable.

Will People Want to Work In These New Sites?

Is not tedious or repetitious.
Leaves time for interesting, creative pursuits aside from work.
Leaves time for entertainment via satellite communications.
Provides companionship in small, village-like communities called pods.
Provides a good place for raising families-no dangerous areas or slums.

In short, it is a good way of life. In addition to these advantages, the average wage of a worker in one of these communities will be $50,000 to $100,000 per year, which is a good middle class wage. The wage must be in this range to compete with the wage level of SEMAN owners (~$80,000).

Finally, the environmental problems of future earth life will ensure that jobs open in this direction. The need for a means to remove carbon dioxide from the air and replace fossil fuels will ensure that these land jobs and their counterpart on the sea (in SEMAN) will be the jobs most available in the future.

The same arguments can be made for emigration into earth orbit communities. It is a strange but good way of life (see AP3.1 THE FINAL SOLUTION TO MAN’S POPULATION PROBLEM)

Summary and Conclusions

The jobs humans do to earn a living are gradually disappearing. As time goes on, it is becoming obvious that almost all ordinary work can be done by computers and robots except tasking, designing, managing and repairing these computers and robots and healing and educating humans. A new industry and life style is required that fills this need for jobs, especially to replace the lost jobs for middle-class people. In a related paper (AP1.3 NEW JOBS FOR THE COMING GENERATION) an industry that harvests energy on the ocean for sale on land was described that makes four hundred million ocean-based jobs, and 150 million land based jobs available for the coming generation to fill this need. In this paper, an estimate of the number of jobs expected to be needed has been provided. Also candidates for the land-based jobs needed for those who don’t want to go to sea were described. These estimates were done assuming the population of earth reaches 8 billion by 2050, rises to 10 billion, and then gradually sinks to 6 to 8 billion as a final steady value.

It was found that in the US, the number of sea-based jobs required that may be filled by the Aquater Alliance and its SEMAN may reach 19.5 million by 2050. The number of land-based jobs required that may be filled by the Aquater Alliance in serving the SEMAN may reach 7.6 million by 2050. Assuming that the structure of most of the economies of the other nations of the world will become similar to the US by 2050, and that the population of the world will reach 8 billion by 2050, the number of sea-based jobs required that may be filled by the Aquater Alliance and its SEMAN may reach 520 million by 2050. With the same assumption for the world economy, the number of land-based jobs required that may be filled by the Aquater Alliance in serving the SEMAN may reach 203 million by 2050. The same is true of a final world population of 8 billion. If the final, stable world population turns out to be 6 billion instead of 8 billion, the number of sea-based jobs required would be 390 million, and the number of land-based jobs required would be 152 million. It has been estimated (see AP1.2 ENERGY SCARCITY AND NEW OPTIONS) that the oceans of the world can carry 200 million SEMAN or 400 million workers (two workers are needed for each SEMAN for safe operation) in areas with winds high enough (>15 KN) for profitability. These jobs cannot be automated out of existence because the energy produced per SEMAN is small, and the total energy requirement is large, yet each SEMAN is profitable. This number of SEMAN corresponds to 150 million workers that are needed on land to serve the 400 million workers on the sea. These land workers cannot be automated out of existence either because the work sites must be scattered on the shores of all the oceans to give easy access to the SEMAN. Thus, considering the uncertainties in the estimates, the number of jobs required worldwide by 2050 appears to be larger than the number of Aquater jobs available for a population of 8 billion and roughly equivalent for a world population of 6 billion. Note that these jobs cannot be automated or scaled out of existence.

So a complete solution to the problem of long-term future work may exist if the final world population is 6 billion. If the population rises to 10 billion and falls to 8 billion, we will have a major work problem. This is not the only potential solution to the work problem, however. Others are working on different solutions (see AP1.31 NEW JOBS FOR THE COMING GENERATION). Some of these options may work out, and provide some more jobs, but they still may not provide enough jobs for a world population of 8 billion. It does seem prudent, then, to include an option to immigrate into orbit around earth, as explained in AP3.1 THE FINAL SOLUTION TO MAN’S POPULATION PROBLEM. This pair of options, then, becomes a complete and well-rounded solution even for a world population of 8 billion or more. This tells us we may have a sustainable solution for the future jobs of mankind if we continue to work on the developments necessary to make these options real. Without these two options, the work problem appears formidable and may cause disruption and severe dislocation.

These jobs and living places are different from those current city dwellers are used to, so if good city jobs were available, they would be expected to win most new workers. Some adventurous workers would be willing to try them, but many would not. However, as noted above, lack of good paying jobs in the old professions will force new workers to try a new way of life. The average wage of a worker in one of these communities will be $50,000 to $100,000 per year, which is a good middle class wage. Finally, the environmental problems of future earth life will ensure that jobs open in this direction. The need for a means to remove carbon dioxide from the air and replace fossil fuels with

Green fuels will ensure that these land jobs and their counterpart on the sea (in SEMAN) will be the jobs most available in the future.

Notes

1. More details and references are given on Aquater2050.com to members.

2. For those interested in aiding the completion of the SEMAN prototype to speed the development of these new jobs, a donation button is provided on this site.