The Problem
Fourteen million jobs were lost in the US alone in the recent recession. Many millions more were lost worldwide. Millions of new students are graduated each year world wide requiring new jobs. Millions of unemployed and underemployed worldwide are also searching for work. It is important to ask if the world’s financial and job generation systems can provide the work necessary for these people. There are two areas that must be explored to understand this problem, first-automation and second-the shift from small, local business and banking to large, worldwide business and finance.
First, automation is winning in the factory and the office. Computers and robots are replacing workers in the workforce. It is now possible for a few workers to produce the food and goods needed by many people. Also, the machines which used to replace low skill workers are now replacing well-paid white-collar workers, manufacturing workers, construction workers, family farmers, miners, etc. as well. In the US and other industrialized nations, these workers used to be the backbone of the middle class. This leaves a few highly paid doctors, lawyers, architects, stockbrokers, scientists, engineers, construction managers and company managers, etc. (>$100k salary) still at work at one end of the pay scale, and many service workers-i.e. retail sales, landscapers, waitresses and teaching aids, etc. (<$30k wages) at the other end still at work. The middle class ($30k to $100k), that now consists mostly of teachers, nurses, accountants and small business owners, is dwindling as a proportion of the workforce. Middle class government workers are running into trouble also because the governments of the industrialized nations are increasingly unable to obtain the taxes necessary to pay them. Tens of millions of middle class jobs are needed in the US and many more world wide to replace the jobs lost in the past and more jobs will be needed in the future for youths coming into the job market. But the business climate is changing, and these lost middle class jobs are not being generated.
Second, large, worldwide businesses and financial institutions are replacing small, local businesses and banks. For example, large retailers (such as Walmart) are forcing small retailers, wholesalers, and niche companies out of business by selling goods at prices below those the small businesses can afford. Also, manufacturers are merging into large worldwide enterprises that manufacture in countries that exploit their workers to keep costs low. Also, large investment banks (such as Goldman-Sachs and Bank of America) are replacing small local banks, and they are investing in risky mortgage backed bonds and derivatives rather than in local houses and businesses. This practice deprives local construction and manufacturing businesses of the funds needed to stay in business, and allows these investment banks to obtain large profits, knowing that the government will bail them out when these risky practices get them into trouble as it has in recent years.
These trends in employment and business are explored in more detail in this and a companion paper (AP1.32 NEW LAND JOBS FOR THE COMING GENERATION). In AP1.32, statistical data from the latest US census is used to quantitatively explore trends. In addition, it will explore how a new job area expands into the economy to produce auxiliary jobs. In this paper, the new technologies that can be used to supply synthetic commodities will be explored for new job opportunities.
Proposed New Job Areas
The business area that may be able to provide good, well paid jobs is that of small, specialty businesses that supply energy intensive synthetic commodities rather than large manufacturing businesses that supply hard goods. In order to supply commodities and jobs, rather than just new gadgets for the consumer, the investigation must concentrate on production method as well as market. Small businesses can move quickly into new areas to capitalize on recent research, but in order to supply good job opportunities, production methods must have the following characteristics over and above good pay:
- They must not be capable of being automated or robotized.
- Large companies must not easily dominate the market and replace them.
- The jobs generated must not be easily exported to low wage countries.
- The capital needed to establish these businesses should not require support from the government or large investment banks, and the capital cost should be small.
- They must be resistant to elimination in a business downturn.
- The skills and tools needed for these jobs should be simple, so many people can qualify for them, and the cost of training can be small.
- The opportunity for improvement in skill, understanding and earnings should be available for all.
If jobs with these characteristics can be provided in significant numbers, they will soak up the excess workers, shift the economy from an excess of workers to a shortage of workers and thus change the job market entirely. Businesses will have to provide better jobs with better training, pay and benefits in order to attract new workers, and low-paid service workers will start to move into the middle class.
It has been proposed (by the President of the US) that the energy sector could open up tens of millions of jobs in the US to replace some of the 14 million jobs lost in the recession by pushing development in the field of green energy. This is an excellent proposal, if possible, since it could accomplish four desirable goals at the same time, namely:
- Help make the transition from a fossil fuel based energy economy to a green energy economy in order to reduce carbon dioxide and other harmful emissions.
- Start the world on the road to a sustainable energy economy rather than the road of depleting resources we are currently traveling.
- Reduce or perhaps eliminate the chronic trade deficit the non-oil producing nations run with the oil producing nations by reducing oil and gas imports.
- Provide the good paying jobs the world so desperately needs. In essence, the non-oil exporting nations (including the US) would be paying money to their own workers for energy, rather than to oil exporting nations.
Several critics have stated that this proposal is only politics, since the green energy field cannot provide millions of jobs and dependence on green energy sources rather than fossil fuels may not even be achievable at the present time. Further, it is not clear what kind of jobs this field could provide. Let us investigate this proposal without the political polemic to see if it is a realistic goal.
The Requirements
Job Requirements In order to accomplish the above mentioned job goals; we need to look for energy production options that have the following characteristics.
- The jobs produced should come in large numbers over the next ten years (>ten million in the US, >100 million world-wide), and yet not drive up the cost of the energy produced. Thus we are looking for a means of taking the money we normally would pay to the owners of oil and gas fields and pay it to workers. Such an option would allow us to pay no more for the energy and still increase the number of workers required.
- The jobs produced should have the characteristics needed to be attractive for government R and D support. Specifically, the option should have job leverage-i.e. The money provided by the government should produce jobs, but it should also encourage privately funded expansions and offshoots that will produce even more jobs. Without leverage, millions of jobs requires billions of government dollars which the nations of the world currently can’t afford
- The jobs produced should be free from the threat of job replacement by computers, robots and competition from larger companies. In order for this to happen, humans working in a small business unit must be the best way to operate.
- In order to help pull the world out of a damaging recession, it should be possible for the chosen energy option to enter into the job production phase as soon as possible. We will think of categorizing results as showing in the:
- Near term-up to 5 years from now.
- Long term-5 to 10 years from now and beyond.
Energy Requirements In order to accomplish the green energy goals, we need to look for energy production options that have the following critical features, namely, the energy must be:
- Plentiful enough to start covering a nation’s base load (electricity) needs in the near term and make fuels for portable power plants (autos, trucks and aircraft) that can replace fossil fuels in the long term as current sources peak out.
- Safe and free from carbon dioxide and other pollutant production.
- Price competitive with fossil fuels ($0.08-0.12/KWH), so it can start moving into the fossil fuel market now, and later, as fossil fuels peak out, replace them.
- Able to use the existing energy distribution systems.
Potential Solutions
Several green energy options have been proposed, namely:
- Nuclear fission reactors of a modified and improved design.
- Land based wind turbines.
- Shore based wave generators.
- Land based solar cells and/or solar thermal generators.
- Green fuels to replace fossil fuels such as alcohol and oil from food crops, waste wood, kelp and algae.
- Land based deep thermal wells.
- Ocean based wind turbines, wave generators and solar cells.
Let us explore each green energy option in sequence and match it to our list of job and green energy requirements.
Nuclear Fission.
Energy Characteristics. A nuclear fission reactor is competitive in cost because the energy is as concentrated as is that from fossil fuels, so a relatively small amount of equipment is needed to exploit it, and the fuel is less expensive. Such reactors are currently being used for base load (Load Factor ~0.98. Note that Load Factor is the fraction of time a source is on line providing energy) and can operate at ~$0.08/KWH. It emits no carbon dioxide. There is enough nuclear fuel to last more than 100 years without using breeder reactors (reactors that generate more fissionable fuel than it uses). If we use breeder reactors, there is enough fuel for several thousand years. Thus it meets all the green energy requirements except one, safety. Safety is the big issue, especially after the Japanese reactors did not fail-safe when an earthquake and tsunami damaged them. The vulnerable element in the light water reactors currently being used in Japan and elsewhere is the coolant pump. Backup coolant pumps are always provided, but if all electricity is lost, both inside and outside the facility (as happened in Japan), the backup pumps are useless. The neutron absorbing control rods and emergency shut down systems will deploy without electricity and shut down the fission reaction, but the residual fission and radioactivity in the fuel rods will continue to heat the rods and eventually melt them down (as apparently happened in Japan). If the coolant pump is off line long enough (as also apparently happened in Japan), the rods may melt through the containment vessel and vent radioactive material to the environment.
It appears feasible to design some reactors (for example-pebble bed reactors, certain fast reactors and some special micro reactors) with automatic energy production limits in the fuel elements so that the residual fission and radioactivity will not melt them down even if cooling is lost. Or, it may be possible to make acceptable modifications to the current light water reactor designs.
Getting rid of radioactive spent fuel is also a problem. The fuel elements must either be placed in long-term storage, or treated and refined in a reactor until only short-term radiation is left. These options have been developed, but further research and development (R&D) is necessary to make them practical.
Job Characteristics. This R&D will generate jobs (a few hundred thousand), and they will be high-level jobs (scientists and engineers) until the designs for safe reactors and safe spent fuel disposal methods are obtained and approved. After that, middle class jobs for modifying and operating the reactors will become available. It is expected that this effort and the government approval cycle will take a long time (>one decade or long term), so middle class jobs for the new nuclear plants are not expected until the long term-i.e. after the R and D is done. Even after one to two decades, the number of new workers produced will not be in the tens of millions. If it were so, the energy would cost too much. The number of workers per KWH produced in nuclear plants is relatively small; larger than the number for fossil fueled plants but still relatively small. The capital cost of the plant is large, but the fuel cost per KW produced is relatively small, which brings the overall cost down and makes it competitive with fossil fuel plants in most geographic areas and better than fossil fuels in others.
Land-based wind turbines.
Energy Characteristics. Land based wind turbines are non-polluting, but the energy is diffuse, and so requires a large amount of equipment to exploit it. Thus the capitol and maintenance cost drives the energy cost (~$0.056 to 0.040/KWH factoring in the load factor), and it is not available all the time (Load Factor ~0.5 to 0.7 in good sites, less elsewhere). Also, they require carefully selected windy sites that are not common enough to provide a significant part of the base load. It should be noted, however, that land used for wind turbines can be used for other purposes as well.
Job Characteristics. The R&D on wind turbines has been done, so they are ready to be installed. The only factor that keeps more from being installed (and thus creating middle class jobs) is the lack of good sites, the low load factor and the high capital and maintenance costs which makes the energy cost high. The only way land based wind will become cost competitive is if the government subsidizes it (as has been done in the past) or if it is added to a home to provide domestic energy. Here the cost of the generator is small compared to the cost of the home, so the high cost per KW is less important. This home market is currently being exploited where wind conditions are favorable. Thus wind turbines are useful, but appear best suited for operation in high energy cost areas on an as available basis, or in conjunction with homes. Wind turbines may eventually gain 10 to 15% of the energy market. A modest increase (a few millions world wide) in new jobs is expected over the long term as fossil fuel becomes more expensive, but these jobs will be partially automated out of existence in the long term.
Shore-based wave generators.
Energy Characteristics. Shore based wave generators are also non-polluting, but the energy is diffuse, and so requires a large amount of equipment to exploit it. Thus the resulting energy is expensive, but not as expensive as land based wind turbines (~$0.038 to $0.054/KWH factoring in the load factor), but it is not available all the time (Load Factor ~0.4 to 0.6 in good sites, less elsewhere). Again, they require carefully selected wave sites that are not common enough to provide a significant part of the base load. Thus they are not suited for base load.
Job Characteristics. The R&D on wave generators has been done, so they are ready to be installed. The only thing that keeps more from being installed (and thus creating manufacturing and installation jobs) is the lack of good sites, the low load factor and the high capital and maintenance costs which makes the energy cost high. It is seldom practical to add them to a home, so this procedure for making them more popular is not available as it was with wind turbines. The only way wave generators can become competitive is if the government subsidizes them. Thus they are useful, but appear best suited for operation in high energy cost areas at the end of a long transmission line on an as available basis. Large numbers of new jobs are not expected from this area.
Land-based solar cells and/or solar thermal generators.
Energy Characteristics. Land based Solar cells and solar thermal systems are non-polluting, but are dependent on sunshine, the most diffuse of all energy sources. Thus they require a lot of equipment and are one of the most expensive sources (~$0.81 to $0.12/KWH factoring in load factor), and they don’t operate all the time (Load Factor~0.4 to 0.6 in desert zones, less elsewhere). Both need huge tracts of carefully selected land for each KW of power generated. (~0.1 KW/sq meter) which drives up cost. Furthermore, the land used can’t be used for other purposes. In general, solar generators are not suited for areas near the ocean where clouds and fog are common. Thus land-based solar cells and solar thermal systems are not suited for base load generation where they must be economically competitive and reliable. Solar cells appear best suited for specialty use where cost and area is less important, such as on top of electric cars to extend their battery range, or on top of houses to cover the day-time peak load. Here solar cells are used in conjunction with much more valuable items (cars and houses) so cost is of secondary importance. Solar thermal is useful near isolated desert communities because an energy storage system has been developed for them. Here, climate conditions and isolation from base load generators work together to make these generators more competitive.
Job Characteristics. Most of the R&D on solar cells and solar thermal has been done. The most important remaining research is the effort to increase the efficiency (and/or reduce the cost) of solar cells. Improving the capacity and decreasing cost of batteries for energy storage is also important. Contracts are currently out to accomplish these goals. Success in these endeavors will make solar cells more attractive in the above-mentioned applications and gradually increase their use. Thus, a few new jobs (hundreds of thousands) in the R&D part of this area are expected in the near term. A more significant increase (a few millions world wide) in new jobs is expected in the meduim term as the cost of fossil fuel increases, but they will be partially automated out of existence in the long term.
Sustainable synthetic fuels.
Energy Characteristics. Fuels obtained from plants and trees are non-polluting, but are dependent on sunshine, the most diffuse of all energy sources. The efficiency of conversion is less than that of solar cells, so in general, they will be the most expensive energy source. There is a mitigating factor, however. Some feedstocks are available from other activities that reduce costs. Corn is available from efficient farmland operations. Alcohol from corn is currently being produced and used with gasoline to power autos. This option cannot be thought of as a long-term solution, however. As population increases, the corn must be used for food. The same is true of diesel fuel from soybeans. This is not true of alcohol from waste wood. This source gets its feedstock from lumber processing and brush clearance operations throughout the US. This waste wood would normally remain unused. Long-term production is possible and also desirable. It could help satisfy the need for a partial replacement for fossil fuels for portable applications (autos, trucks and aircraft), but it is not expected to replace them because of expense and limits in the fuel supply. Fuels from kelp and algae have to be grown, however, so they are subject to the bad economics of diffuse energy operations with large land (or water) use and so large capital outlay. These energy sources may become locally competitive in small markets, but they can’t replace fossil fuels for base load. The cost of alcohol from corn is too high to be reasonable (C~$0.21). Expected cost from alcohol from waste wood is also high (C~$0.17). Expected cost of oil from kelp and algae is also high (C~$0.18). Oil from soybeans is more promising (C~$0.13). Alcohol from sugar cane is also better (C~$0.15).
Job Characteristics. There is a significant amount of R&D to be done on synthetic fuels from waste wood, kelp, and algae. This R&D must be pursued to the point where cost and capability are known. Then the competitive position of each option in the overall energy scheme of the US can be established. A few hundred thousand jobs world wide in R&D could result from government contracts in the near term. More jobs (a few millions world wide) will come during the early production stage in the medium term. The millions of jobs that might result when production ramps up will have to wait for the late medium term, and they will be partially automated out of existence in the long term, or the energy will cost too much.
Land based deep thermal wells.
Energy Characteristics. Deep thermal wells are non-polluting and expected to be competitive in cost because the energy is concentrated as with nuclear fission and fossil fuels and so, with the exception of the well, requires a relatively small amount of equipment to exploit it and the fuel (heat from deep in the earth’s crust) is free. The land area required is small and modest in cost. New chemical drilling techniques for the well show promise in holding the cost of the very deep well down, but experimental cost details are not yet available. If the pilot well is inexpensive enough, deep thermal wells can be used to provide base load. Some estimates put the resulting energy cost at C~$0.081/KWH. The fuel (earth heat) is available near enough to the surface in many areas on the earth, and will last for the foreseeable future. It is non-polluting. It can use existing electrical distribution systems. The resulting wells can even be used to sequester carbon dioxide, which is used as the heat transfer medium. The only disadvantages of this generator are that it is vulnerable to earthquake damage, and it is useable only in areas where the hot rocks needed are close enough to the earth’s surface to make drilling the well economically feasible. The vulnerability to earthquake damage may make it undesirable for earthquake zones such as coastal California, and the hot rocks are nearer the surface in the west of the US than in the east, but the potential operational area world wide appears to be large.
Job Characteristics. The R&D on deep thermal wells is well under way. A pilot well is being drilled. If the well is found to be economical in producing energy, expansion into large energy production is expected to proceed rapidly because there are fewer political and safety problems to overcome in order to get permits than, for example, for nuclear fission reactors. The number of workers required per KW produced is relatively small, however, because each well produces a large amount (megawatts) of power, and the workers needed per well is modest. Thus, the tens of millions of jobs hoped for, world wide, will not be forthcoming in this area. However, the jobs it does produce will be middle class jobs ($30k to $100k), but they will not come in the near term. It will take at least five years to see a significant increase in jobs in this area, and in the long term, these jobs will be partially automated out of existence.
Ocean based wind turbines, wave generators and solar cells.
Energy Characteristics. These energy sources are non-polluting and capable of generating large amounts of energy. However, they depend on diffuse energy sources, so they would be expected to require a large amount of equipment and so be expensive. This turns out to be wrong for four reasons:
- The operator lives on the vessel (called a SEMAN) and grows his/her food on the vessel with hydroponics and aquaculture while harvesting energy for sale. Thus, part of the operator’s pay is the food and living quarters provided for him and his live aboard family. Also, energy harvesters and hydroponics food tanks can be built and operated together on one vessel to save capital and maintenance expense.
- The operator can be the owner to save overhead and capitol and housing expense. Thus the vessel becomes a small business that provides a good, middle class living for the owner.
- The vessel can be moved to find optimum high-energy yield operating conditions (Load Factor for energy production can be ~0.85 to 0.95)
- The three energy sources used (wind, waves and solar cells) complement each other, so at least one is operating at or near optimum almost all the time, and at least one will always be operating.
Thus, the cost per KWH is estimated at C~$0.019/KWH at a very high load factor (~0.85 to 0.95), which gives a nice profit margin. Note that because of self-interference of the energy harvesting mechanisms, each vessel must remain small, and so produces only a modest amount of power (100 to 400 KW). Thus large numbers of vessels are required to obtain the total power required world wide, but each vessel is expected to be profitable by itself. It has been estimated (See Aquater Papers in Aquater2050.com) that the high-energy areas of the oceans (mostly trade wind, sea breeze and storm zones areas) can support 200 million vessels, so tens (in the US) to hundreds (world-wide) of millions of jobs will result from this energy producer. Specifically, four hundred million ocean-based jobs (two for each SEMAN) are expected to be available worldwide as well as some connected land based jobs. The land-based jobs connected with these ocean-based jobs will be discussed in a separate, related paper (see AP3.2 NEW LAND JOBS FOR THE COMING GENERATION). Here we appear to have found a means of taking the money we normally would pay to the owners of oil and gas fields and paying it to workers who will produce the energy we use. The energy produced (electricity) can be converted into nitrogen fertilizer concentrate immediately with easy transport to land, and a ready market. This frees up natural gas (currently used to make fertilizer) for use to generate base load electricity. It can also be converted into hydrogen and oxygen by electrolysis of water, or, using the plant residues from the food grown on board or other means, be converted into synthetic oil and transported to land. Note that these fuels are renewable. Thus, SEMAN can provide fuels for portable applications (autos, trucks and aircraft) and electricity generation. This synthetic oil from ocean energy can gradually replace the fossil fuel oil as they peak out and the world can move smoothly into renewable energy. This latter conversion of electricity into synthetic oil is currently under development using techniques developed be the Germans in WWII and other techniques (see AP2.4 ENERGY, WATER AND FOOD AND THE AQUATER OCEAN TRADE NETWORK). In addition to energy production, this electrical energy and the placement of SEMAN on the ocean allows for a convenient method of sequestering carbon dioxide by freezing the carbon dioxide and sinking it in the deep ocean (see AP1.1 AIR POLLUTION AND CLIMATE CHANGE).
Job Characteristics. The R&D on ocean based wind turbines, wave generators and solar cells is nearly complete. The prototype is 95% done. After prototype completion and test, production can be turned over to existing recreational boat building yards, so moving into production phase can be quickly accomplished. There is a ready market for the initial product (fertilizer) of the vessel, so production can increase steadily. Hundreds of Millions of jobs can result when you count the construction workers and the operators of the vessels. These jobs will be mostly middle class jobs ($30k to $100k/yr). Also, most of these jobs are not subject to replacement by computers and robots. They cannot be exported, since they are ocean based. Also, the energy and fertilizer market is resistant to the business cycle. The market depends primarily on population, not business conditions, since everyone needs food and energy. With this energy source, we pay no more for the energy and our money will go mostly to energy workers. Further, the skill set needed to enter this field is modest. Construction is mostly done in wood with simple and inexpensive electrical and hand tools. One person can construct a complete, ready-to-use new vessel in remote and undeveloped areas, or on an existing SEMAN while it operates on the ocean. Further, capital for construction can be obtained by use of a recycling fund operated by the Aquaters (the people who operate SEMAN) rather than by government or investment banker money. Finally, the job has significant leisure time and allows for travel. Satellite communication with the land is available. Thus, a program of personal improvement is possible which can bring about new job opportunities and earnings. Note, however, that these jobs will not come in the near term (<5 years). It will take at least five years to see a significant increase in jobs in this area. Finally, these jobs are ocean based, and may not appeal to many city born people. Moving them into this new work area may not be easy, as will be described in the next section. The land-based jobs connected with these ocean-based jobs will be discussed in a separate, related paper (see AP3.2 NEW LAND JOBS FOR THE COMING GENERATION). It is important to note that this energy source is the only one that satisfies all of the requirements both as an energy provider and as a job source. It appears to be the perfect energy option and job source that the President of the US is searching for.
Will People Want to Work on the Sea in SEMAN?
These jobs are different from those current city dwellers are used to, so if good city jobs were available, they would not be expected to win as many new workers. Some adventurous new workers would be willing to try it, but many would not. However, as noted above, lack of jobs in the old professions will force new workers to try a new way of life. They will find that it:
- Is not tedious or repetitious.
- Leaves time for interesting, creative pursuits.
- Leaves time for entertainment via satellite communications.
- Makes travel cheap and easy.
- Gives a good place to raise a family.
- Provides companionship via pods of SEMAN operating together.
- Provides a salary (profit margin) of ~$80,000-a good middle class amount.
In short, it is a good way of life. In addition, there will be new land based jobs connected with these sea borne jobs that will fit city dwellers better. This issue will be addressed in more detail in a companion paper (ap3A NEW LAND BASED JOBS FOR THE COMING GENERATION).
Finally, the economics of future earth life will ensure that jobs open in this direction. The need for energy and for a means to remove carbon dioxide from the air and to replace fossil fuels will ensure that SEMAN jobs and their counterpart on the land will be the jobs most available in the future.
Summary and Conclusions
Can the proposal (offered by the president of the US) to create tens (in the US) to hundreds of millions (world-wide) of jobs in the field of green energy as well as allow a gradual shift out of fossil fuels into sustainable carbon free energy be achieved? The short answer is yes, but the jobs and the transition will not come about in the near term (<5 years from now). We must wait more than five years before green energy employment begins to ramp up significantly. It appears possible in the long term, however, to work out an energy supply system where we pay no more for the energy, and the payments go to workers rather than oil field owners. As these jobs are provided, they will soak up the excess workers currently available, and change the job market entirely. Businesses will have to provide better pay and benefits in order to attract new workers, and low-paid service workers will start to move into the middle class. Let us summarize this answer in more detail.
The value of nuclear reactors for base load (electrical energy) in many (but not all) geographical areas justifies the R&D necessary to make them safe. Safety is especially important in the wake of Japan’s earthquake and tsunami problems. Government contracts appear justified. This effort will create some new jobs (a few hundred thousand) in the near term (<5years) and more in the long term (~10years). Even in the long term, the new jobs will not number in the tens of millions. More likely, it will be a few millions, worldwide. In spite of the safety issues, there is an important position for nuclear fission as a replacement for fossil fuels and as a provider of jobs in the future energy production pattern in the US and world-wide, but automation will reduce this number over time, so they cannot have a significant impact on the jobs needed in the future..
Land based wind turbines appear to be able to make a significant (10 to 20%) contribution to the energy production pattern in the US and the world where the value is high in a rising energy cost market. It is not a significant base load contender, however, unless it is subsidized. The home addition market is already being exploited. No government contracts appear necessary. A gradual increase in jobs is expected to a few millions, world wide, in the long term, but automation will reduce this number over time, so they cannot have a significant impact on the jobs needed in the future..
Solar energy cost is high, but it appears to have a significant (15 to 25%) market when combined with cars (to increase the range of battery powered electric cars), and homes (to cover a portion of daytime peak load). This is because the high cost of solar cells is small compared to the cost of homes and autos and the value of the energy is high in a rising energy cost market. This market is beginning to be exploited. Because of the cost, however, solar cells are not base load contenders, however, unless they are subsidized. The only government contracts needed are already underway, namely, those aimed at increasing efficiency and reducing cost and improving battery storage. A gradual increase in jobs in this area is expected to be a few millions, world wide, in the long term, but automation will reduce this number over time, so they cannot have a significant impact on the jobs needed in the future..
Synthetic fuels from waste wood, kelp and algae are expected to have a significant but limited market for use in autos, trucks and aircraft. Of these, fuel from waste wood is expected to be the leader because the feedstock is so widely and cheaply available from sawmills and brush clearance. Government contracts to develop and sort out these fuels are recommended. They have the potential of becoming a significant contributor (15 to 25%) in the race to replace fossil fuels with carbon free, sustainable fuels. These fuels do not appear to be base load contenders, however, unless subsidized. R&D jobs in the hundreds of thousands are possible in the near term. In the long term, a few millions of jobs in this area appear likely, worldwide, but automation will reduce this number over time, so they cannot have a significant impact on the jobs needed in the future..
Land based deep thermal wells are a potential leader in the race to replace fossil fuels for base load. Perhaps 20 to 30% of the base load could be supplied with this source. A pilot well is underway, and if successful, contracts to jump-start the drilling of new production wells should be considered. R&D jobs in the hundreds of thousands are possible in the near term. In the long term, several millions of jobs in this area appear likely, worldwide, but automation will reduce this number over time, so they cannot have a significant impact on the jobs needed in the future..
Ocean based wind, wave and solar cell generators appear to be in a position to eventually cover all remaining carbon-free energy requirements as the fossil oil and gas fuels peak out. This would ensure a smooth transition to a green, sustainable energy economy. This energy source can provide fossil fuel generated commodities (such as nitrogen fertilizer-currently made from natural gas) in the near term, and synthetic fuels (such as hydrogen, oil and natural gas) in the long term. It can provide literally four hundred million good paying, attractive ocean based jobs in the near to long term. These jobs are for the SEMAN owners and operators. The land-based jobs connected with these ocean-based jobs will be discussed in a related paper (AP3.2 New Land Jobs for the Coming Generation). These consist of the ocean vessel construction, supply and energy transport workers. The skill set required of these workers is modest, so most of the population will be eligible to build and operate these vessels. Furthermore, this task can be done without using government and investment banker’s money. This green energy option appears to be the job producer that the President of the US is searching for.
Notes
1. More details and references are given on Aquater2050.com. to members.
2. Unfamiliar terms (such as pebble bed reactor, etc) are defined on the Internet (Wikipedia)
3. For those interested in aiding the completion of the SEMAN prototype to speed the development of these new jobs, a donation button is provided on this site.